Press review: US election set to shape politics while Kiev seeks ‘energy deal’ with Moscow

MOSCOW, October 31. /TASS/. Russia’s Foreign Ministry dismisses “German scenario” for peace in Ukraine; analysts predict the upcoming US presidential election will shape the political and economic landscape; and Kiev seeks “energy deal” with Moscow. These stories have dominated Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
 
Moscow has dismissed the so-called “German scenario” for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, which would involve the Kiev-controlled regions joining NATO while Russia retains the areas it currently holds. This statement was made by Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, in an interview with Izvestia.
The “German scenario” refers to the post-World War II situation in Germany, where West Germany joined NATO in 1955, while East Germany became a member of the Warsaw Pact. Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, warns that implementing a similar scenario in Ukraine would inevitably lead to the deployment of NATO infrastructure, posing a direct military threat to Russia. “We understand that the demilitarization of Ukraine is one of the key objectives of our special military operation, and NATO membership contradicts that goal. NATO bases and weaponry that threaten our country would likely be established there eventually,” he emphasized.
Meanwhile, Washington is reportedly interested in the “German scenario” for resolving the conflict, fearing that the longer Russia’s offensive continues, the fewer areas in Ukraine will remain under US influence, according to political scientist Igor Pshenichny.
In Germany, political parties are divided over the Ukraine situation, as noted by Vedomosti. Matthias Miersch, Secretary General of the Social Democratic Party, has recently called for recognition of the political legacy of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who has faced accusations of maintaining close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. German society is clearly demanding changes in political approaches, remarked Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at the European Studies Institute of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Berlin’s decision to abandon Russian energy supplies has significantly impacted the German economy, leading to a need for the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz to reassess its policies. The reevaluation of Schroeder’s role reflects this shift. Regarding changes in the Social Democratic Party’s stance on the Ukraine conflict, Sokolov noted that constructive statements are often met with a flurry of critical responses.
 
The United States will hold its presidential election next Tuesday, November 5, featuring incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on the ballot. The outcome is expected to have significant implications for various areas, particularly US policy towards Ukraine and Russia, as well as the economy, Izvestia reports.
Viktoria Zhuravlyova, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes that two potential scenarios for Ukraine and Russia will emerge depending on the election’s result. “If Harris wins, she is highly likely to continue the current administration’s policy, which includes providing extensive support to Ukraine ‘to achieve a victorious end,’” the analyst stated. Conversely, if Trump is elected, the situation could change dramatically, as he has consistently expressed his opposition to supporting Ukraine. Even if funding for Kiev is not completely halted, the primary responsibility would likely shift to European nations, according to Zhuravlyova. However, she notes that there would be no change regarding Russia.
Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Center for Security Studies, emphasizes that Trump views Russia not as an adversary but as a potential partner for agreements. In this context, Ukraine is seen as “a bargaining chip in a major geopolitical game.”
Blokhin also suggests that a Trump victory would likely lead to increased pressure on China and Iran, alongside a rise in support for Israel. Zhuravlyova expects Trump to maintain strong backing for Israel while adopting a tougher stance on Palestine. “Harris will probably seek a compromise, and her administration will endeavor to facilitate an end to the conflict. Democrats are likely to exert some influence on Israel to encourage a cessation of military operations,” she noted.
Regarding economic implications, the effects of the US election are already evident, as the US dollar has recently strengthened against major global currencies. Alexander Rudoy, deputy chief of the international project implementation department at the State University of Management’s Office for International Cooperation, attributes this to investor expectations that the US Federal Reserve will maintain a soft monetary policy and reduce interest rates in November. Analysts suggest that if Trump wins, the dollar could strengthen further due to his pledge to increase import taxes, whereas a victory for Harris may lead to a weakening of the US national currency.
 
As Ukraine’s power grid operator, Ukrenergo, warns of potential major blackouts this winter due to continued Russian strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure, media reports indicate preliminary discussions between Kiev and Moscow regarding a mutual cessation of such attacks. Experts consulted by Nezavisimaya Gazeta believe that the parties may be exchanging views on the potential resumption of negotiations.
These reports evoke memories of the 2022 grain deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations to facilitate agricultural exports. However, Moscow withdrew from the agreement a year later, citing the failure to fulfill obligations made to Russia.
This raises the question of why Russia would enter into any new agreement with Ukraine that violates previous commitments. Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, emphasized that the primary objective of Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities was to diminish the country’s military capacity. Without consistent electricity, it becomes challenging to charge drones—widely used in the conflict—and to keep the remaining defense enterprises operational. The situation would have been even more dire had the Russian military sought to compel Ukraine to shut down its nuclear power plants, which Moscow has so far avoided attacking. Nevertheless, ensuring that the Kiev authorities prioritize electricity for the civilian population over defense needs poses a significant challenge. Despite this, Russia has been considerate of Ukrainian civilians’ interests when conducting such strikes.
Yushkov noted that last winter, Russia began its strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure only after the heating season had concluded. Currently, reports indicate fewer missile attacks on Ukrainian strategic assets, though substations near the frontline continue to come under fire.
Speculation suggests that Moscow and Kiev initiated discussions on mutually halting these attacks prior to the Ukrainian military’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region on August 6. Following that event, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that no talks could occur while Ukrainian forces were on Kursk soil. However, since the Russian leadership views this as a temporary situation, the parties may currently be exploring the possibility of resuming dialogue. Nevertheless, the feasibility of new negotiations remains highly questionable, as the Kiev authorities have repeatedly violated previous agreements, Yushkov concluded.
 
Public sentiment toward Russia is evolving in Georgia, as evidenced by the results of the recent parliamentary election, where the pro-Western opposition suffered defeat.
Analysts interviewed by Izvestia note that Russia remains one of Georgia’s key economic partners, and the desire to maintain normal relations with Moscow is also driven by Tbilisi’s concerns about being drawn into the Ukraine conflict.
The ruling Georgian Dream party secured victory in the October 26 parliamentary election, indicating that society is not prepared for significantly closer ties with the West. While Georgia continues its pursuit of EU integration and maintains aspirations to join NATO, the authorities are not rushing to impose sanctions on Russia. Economic considerations play a pivotal role in the Georgian government’s desire to strengthen ties with Moscow, as Russia is Tbilisi’s second-largest economic partner after Turkey, with China ranking third. In contrast, relations between Georgia and the European Union have deteriorated recently, particularly after the country passed a law designating non-profit organizations and media outlets receiving over 20% of funding from abroad as foreign agents. Additionally, the Georgian Dream party initiated legislation banning LGBT propaganda, leading the EU to suspend the country’s integration into the association.
“Georgians’ attitudes toward Russia shifted following the onset of military activities in Ukraine. The acting Ukrainian ambassador previously admitted that Kiev had requested weapons from the Georgian government, which refused. Subsequently, Ukraine redirected the request to the US, which also faced refusal from Georgia. This situation made it clear to our people that warnings of a potential second front opening in our country were more than mere rhetoric. No one wanted war,” remarked Georgian political scientist Petre Mamradze.
Voters are acutely aware of the developments in Ukraine and are keen to avoid being drawn into a similar conflict, emphasized Nikolay Silayev, senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security at Moscow State Institute of International Relations. “Their reluctance to become embroiled in war is significantly influencing their attitude toward Russia,” he explained.
 
China is now the largest importer of Russian agricultural goods, with bilateral trade in this sector rising by 33% in 2023 to a record $11.4 billion, according to Beijing’s Ambassador to Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, speaking at the Russia-China Agricultural Cooperation Forum, as reported by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
The ambassador noted that the rapid growth of agricultural trade between the two nations has led to an ongoing expansion of the range of products permitted in their markets. China now allows the import of more than 60 types of food products from Russia, with over 3,000 Russian companies authorized to export to China. Additionally, Chinese agricultural enterprises are actively investing in Russian agriculture, participating in 255 projects with investments exceeding $11 billion.
Veronika Nikishina, Director General of the Russian Export Center, stated that over the past decade, Russia has climbed from 13th to 8th place in food exports to China. In monetary terms, exports have grown more than five-fold, although both parties have yet to fully leverage their cooperation potential, she asserted.
Alexander Yakuba, a representative from the Agroexport Federal Center to the Agricultural Ministry, highlighted that these positive outcomes are largely due to effective collaboration among government agencies that facilitate the entry of Russian products into the Chinese market. For example, the Chinese market was opened to Russian pork at the end of last year, with exports reaching 29,000 metric tons in the first nine months of 2024.
Currently, efforts are underway to remove restrictions on the export of winter wheat, barley, and processed grain. “Russia has significant capacity to increase exports of these products, and we are prepared to ensure stable grain supplies to our Chinese partners that meet all quality and safety requirements,” Yakuba emphasized.
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